Physical propagation of climate extremes across global value chains.
Serine Guichoud  1, 2, *@  , Laurent Li  1@  , Patrice Dumas  2@  
1 : Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Sorbonne Université, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris
2 : Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, AgroParisTech, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
* : Corresponding author

This paper presents a theoretical frame relying on the graph theory for assessing extreme weather events relative impact on global value chains. The approach is defined in three steps: the first part of the paper presents the intuition inspiring the defined model and associated theory, the second part is focused on a scenario analysis declining extreme events relative severity by countries, the third part leverages on thegraph theory to decline damages associated to extreme events into macro-sectorial value chains disruptions. Across literature, catastrophic events damage is often linked to a temperature threshold, in this paper, we chose to calibrate damages with a vector scoring extreme events frequential historical occurrence. Using the graph theory, we incorporate these damages to a network of countries moving from a disequilibrium state of constant flows before impact to a modified state considering the extreme events occurrence.



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