Climate-Adaptive Supervision in Insurance Markets
Eric Vansteenberghe  1, 2@  
1 : ACPR
Autorité de Conôle Prudentiel et de Résolution - Banque de France
2 : Paris School of Economics
Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, École normale supérieure - Paris, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS)

This paper introduces a novel supervisory tool to enhance resilience in insurance markets faced with climate change uncertainties. I develop a theoretical model simulating an insurance market with non-cooperative insurance experts who set premiums based on subjective risk modeling. I present a supervisory tool that relies on inter-temporal changes to pool expert opinions and identify fast-learning leaders who can accurately classify extreme climate-induced events. This tool addresses the challenge of insurability with a changing climate and helps supervisors anticipate shifts in risk parameters. The robustness and utility of the proposed tool are validated through a series of simulations where it demonstrates superior performance compared to conventional pooling methods.



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